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(3) women (3) World Cup (147) World Series (656)By Month:November 2008October 2008September 2008August 2008July 2008June 2008May 2008April 2008March 2008February 2008January 2008December 2007November 2007October 2007September 2007August 2007July 2007June 2007May 2007April 2007March 2007February 2007January 2007December 2006November 2006October 2006September 2006August 2006July 2006June 2006May 2006April 2006March 2006February 2006January 2006December 2005November 2005October 2005September 2005August 2005July 2005June 2005May 2005April 2005March 2005February 2005January 2005December 2004November 2004October 2004September 2004August 2004July 2004June 2004May 2004April 2004March 2004February 2004January 2004December 2003November 2003October 2003September 2003August 2003July 2003June 2003May 2003April 2003March 2003February 2003January 2003December 2002November 2002October 2002September 2002August 2002July 2002June 2002May 2002April 2002March 2002Credits    Memorabilia November 18, 2008 More Quality Permalink Joe Magrane joins the MLB Network. I've been impressed with their hires so far. Posted by David Pinto at 08:22 AM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008 | Buy Roto Authority Projections Embarrassing Embarrassment Permalink Phil Sheridan embarrasses himself by writing that the NL MVP vote embarrassed the voters:Pujols was not an embarrassing selection, not with his excellent numbers, but was still the wrong selection. And that should embarrass the association enough to do what it should have done long ago: get out of the business of voting on baseball's postseason awards - as well as the Hall of Fame.That won't happen because the association is as incapable of being embarrassed as is Major League Baseball itself.Voting for Edinson Volquez was an embarrassment. Manny Ramirez finishing fourth in the MVP poll was a bit of an embarrassment. Getting the vote right by picking Albert Pujols showed that some writers actually know what they are doing. Posted by David Pinto at 08:13 AM | Awards | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections November 17, 2008 Monkey Business Permalink The Marcel the Monkey projections are now available at The Book Blog. Posted by David Pinto at 05:18 PM | Predictions | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections The Signings Start Permalink The Giants get the ball rolling:Reliever Jeremy Affeldt became the first of 171 free agents to agree to a contract, striking an $8 million, two-year deal Monday with the San Francisco Giants.He's put up two good years in a row playing in parks that favor the hitter. The money is right in line with Damaso Marte's contract, and Affeldt is younger and pitches more innings. Posted by David Pinto at 04:49 PM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections A Lawn Grows in Queens Permalink A helicopter photo shows Citi Field with grass in place.The two New York stadiums seem to be moving along quite well. I wonder if they'll avoid the last minute fixes we've seem in other places? Posted by David Pinto at 03:24 PM | Stadiums | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Replacement Game Permalink The Hall of Fame came up with a replacement for the Hall of Fame Game:Baseball's legends and old-timers will play in a new Hall of Fame Classic game beginning in 2009.The inaugural Hall of Fame Classic will be held on Father's Day, June 21. The game replaces the Hall of Fame Game, which was discontinued this year after 68 years.This might even be more fun. Instead of a group of minor leaguers filling in, their will be players people know and care about. It's a nice compromise. Posted by David Pinto at 03:08 PM | All-Time Greats | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Pujols Wins MVP Permalink Albert Pujols wins the NL MVP award, taking both the most first place and second place votes.Pujols, who previously won the award in 2005, was the only player whose name appeared on all 32 ballots submitted by two writers in each league city. He was listed first on 18 ballots, second on 10, third on two, fourth on one and seventh on one for a total of 369 points, based on the tabulation system that rewards 14 points for first place, nine for second, eight for third and on down to one for 10th.It's a very interesting vote, with Howard finishing second, and Brad Lidge receiving two first place votes but finishing eighth. Outside of Pujols and Howard, there was no real consensus. Manny Ramirez finished fourth, which is pretty amazing considering he was in the league for just two months. Sabathia finished sixth, again the voters recognizing the impact of a short term player. For the second year in a row, I'm surprised at the lack of support for Hanley Ramirez.A question arose as to my earlier post, as to why I left Berkman off the ballot when I thought he played better than Ryan Howard. The answer was simply that Berkman was just another first baseman having a great year. Down ballot, I like to recognize accomplishments. So Howard leading the majors in home runs goes down there, as does Manny's two incredible months with the Dodgers, and Tim Lincecum's Cy Young season. I think there can be some subjectivity to the MVP ballot, especially down ballot.Congratulations to Albert Pujols on his second win. If Barry Bonds hadn't been around early in the decade, we might have seen four or five wins by now. Posted by David Pinto at 02:21 PM | Awards | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections PMR Runs, Leftfielders Permalink Dan Turkenkopf calculates runs allowed or saved for leftfielders based on their PMR stats.Update: Here are the runs for first basemen as well. Posted by David Pinto at 12:46 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Insider Keeps Cuban Outsider? Permalink Mark Cuban charged with insider trading. Will that hurt his attempt to buy the Cubs? Thanks to Bob Tufts for the link. Posted by David Pinto at 12:07 PM | Owners | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Talking to Closers Permalink The Mets asked the agents for both Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes to call them before they sign with anyone else. They also appear to have at least talked about a contract with K-Rod. Posted by David Pinto at 11:32 AM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Wakefield to Retire? Permalink YFSF notes a rumor that Tim Wakefield may retire due to pain in his shoulder. If true, that leaves the Red Sox with a big hole -- you cannot replace a starter who consistently posts a 100-115 ERA+ over 200 innings with a salary of just $4 million. On the other hand, it would eliminate the need for a specialized Wakefield-only catcher, making perhaps more possible a Varitek-Saltalamacchia semiplatoon as the one passes his baton to the other.Luckily, his replacement is in Japan! Posted by David Pinto at 11:06 AM | Players | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections NL MVP Preview Permalink  Ryan HowardPhoto:Icon SMIThe BBWAA announce the National League MVP award this afternoon, and the pundits seem to handicap it as a race between Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard. However, that ignores a middle infielder with a great season, Hanley Ramirez.There is no doubt Albert Pujols was the best hitter in the majors this season. If I'm filling out a ballot, Pujols gets my number one vote. I'm not sure how high I rank Howard. Here's a list of qualifying MLB players by slugging percentage. Note that Hanley finishes just three points behind Howard, and blows him away in both batting average and OBA. On top of that, he played a pretty good shortstop this season. Voting Howard second also ignores Lance Berkman, who posted better numbers as a first basemen, and other offensive contributors at key defensive positions like David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Howard's own teammate Chase Utley. If Ryan wins the award or finishes second, the Home Run/RBI wing of the voters is still alive and well. Hanley RamirezPhoto:Icon SMIMy ballot would be something like:Albert PujolsHanley RamirezChase UtleyCarlos BeltranDavid WrightDan UgglaTim LincecumRyan BraunRyan HowardManny RamirezManny was certainly the spark that brought the division to the Dodgers, but it's tough for me to include him for two months worth of work. I might put Cole Hamels there instead. We'll see how the voters decided at 2 PM EST. Posted by David Pinto at 09:40 AM | Awards | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Holding Back? Permalink Lookout Landing examines the claim that Francisco Rodriguez was just holding back on his fastball to gain control.Francisco Rodriguez is a good closer. Of that there's no question. But there are already a lot of miles on his arm, and he's coming off the worst season of his career in which his fastball dropped a few ticks. That's bad. Those are two major red flags, and you better believe the league is aware. I would not want to be a fan of the team that ends up footing his contract, because while free agency is almost always about paying for what a guy's already done (as opposed to what you expect him to do), this one takes that to another level.All pitchers eventually lose something off their fastballs. The good ones adjust by improving their control. It usually happens when they're 30, not 26, however. Posted by David Pinto at 07:46 AM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections The Female Wakefield Permalink A new Japanese independent team drafted a woman. Eri Yoshida is just 16 years old:"I always dreamed of becoming a professional," Yoshida, who is 5-feet tall and weighs 114 pounds, told a news conference Monday. "I have only just been picked by the team and haven't achieved anything yet."Yoshida throws a side-arm knuckleball and says she wants to follow in the footsteps of Boston Red Sox pitcher Tim Wakefield, who has built a successful major league career throwing a knuckleball.I've thought for a while that a knuckleball might be the way for a woman to play against men, or as a really slick fielding second baseman. I hope she pitches well. Posted by David Pinto at 07:35 AM | women | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections November 16, 2008 Buyers Market for the Mets Permalink Joel Sherman notes that the Mets are benefitting from the number of closers available on the free agent market:Now the Mets do not like Hoffman's stuff, and if you were guessing where Wood would end up, then playing for fellow fireballing Texan Nolan Ryan's Rangers would be a good bet (he is the team president). But the definitive league-wide availability of Hoffman and Wood only further saturated the closer market. And only gave greater confidence to the Mets that they not only will find a closer this offseason, but find him via free agency, which is their preference because that would allow them to protect their farm system.The market has become so saturated, in fact, that an AL official regularly in touch with the Mets executives said it was his perception the Mets will wait to see if supply-and-demand take holds and the price falls, especially for the two main free-agent closers, Brian Fuentes and Francisco Rodriguez. As Hardball previously has reported, the Mets' main targets this offseason are Fuentes and Derek Lowe.Having options helps prevent teams from being held up by players. Posted by David Pinto at 06:11 PM | Free Agents | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Suspension Threat Permalink It appears the Red Sox came very close to suspending Manny Ramirez late in July.According to multiple sources, Boston management had drafted an official letter of suspension for Ramirez, and delivered it to him at Fenway Park at around 11 p.m. on Friday night, July 25. For the second straight game, Ramirez had refused to play that evening, and the Red Sox lost 1-0 to the rival New York Yankees in front of a boisterous and sold-out home crowd.The letter informed Ramirez that the suspension was to go into effect the next day, Saturday, July 26. It said Ramirez was being suspended without pay for being unwilling to play. Copies of the letter were also sent to Major League Baseball, the MLB Players Association and Ramirez's agent, Scott Boras.Suspensions in baseball are not unusual for players who test positive for performance-enhancing drugs or who are involved in fights during a game. It is extremely rare for a player to be suspended, or threatened with such a suspension, for refusing to play.Within two hours after Ramirez received the letter of suspension, the Red Sox received two calls, according to sources. The first call was from one of Ramirez's teammates. He told a member of Boston's front office that Ramirez would play in Saturday afternoon's game against the Yankees. Within minutes, the second call came in from Ramirez himself, who confirmed that he would be available for Saturday's game.If the story is correct, the threat appeared to work. Posted by David Pinto at 12:27 PM | Players | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Catcher Permalink Our survey of the positions continues with catchers. Catchers don't field very many balls, so take these rankings with a grain of salt. First, the teams:Team Catchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data onlyTeam In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER RatioBrewers 4354 71 63.52 0.016 0.015 111.78Mets 4335 54 48.85 0.012 0.011 110.53Astros 4292 41 37.24 0.010 0.009 110.11Pirates 4683 53 48.61 0.011 0.010 109.03Twins 4607 45 41.93 0.010 0.009 107.32Yankees 4349 56 52.39 0.013 0.012 106.89Rangers 4667 49 46.47 0.010 0.010 105.44Rockies 4535 58 55.02 0.013 0.012 105.42Orioles 4540 41 39.10 0.009 0.009 104.86Phillies 4396 58 56.28 0.013 0.013 103.06Braves 4383 63 61.73 0.014 0.014 102.07Diamondbacks 4224 50 49.19 0.012 0.012 101.65Nationals 4417 34 33.64 0.008 0.008 101.08Padres 4419 64 63.44 0.014 0.014 100.88Mariners 4512 42 42.22 0.009 0.009 99.47Dodgers 4265 38 38.45 0.009 0.009 98.82Blue Jays 4215 57 57.84 0.014 0.014 98.54Angels 4374 44 44.74 0.010 0.010 98.35Tigers 4536 58 59.27 0.013 0.013 97.86White Sox 4409 39 39.88 0.009 0.009 97.80Giants 4232 48 49.80 0.011 0.012 96.38Rays 4264 50 51.91 0.012 0.012 96.32Red Sox 4232 51 53.09 0.012 0.013 96.07Royals 4413 49 51.24 0.011 0.012 95.62Marlins 4338 58 60.75 0.013 0.014 95.47Indians 4513 45 47.90 0.010 0.011 93.94Cardinals 4597 47 50.66 0.010 0.011 92.78Athletics 4285 28 31.42 0.007 0.007 89.12Reds 4299 52 60.30 0.012 0.014 86.23Cubs 4156 42 51.03 0.010 0.012 82.31It looks like the Mets trade for Brian Schneider turned out to be a good one from a defensive standpoint. It also looks like rookie of the year Geovany Soto might have some things to learn behind the plate. Let's look at the individuals:Individual Catchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play) Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER RatioWil Nieves 1327 14 9.94 0.011 0.007 140.90J.R. Towles 1252 8 6.01 0.006 0.005 133.04Kevin Cash 1131 14 10.77 0.012 0.010 129.95Ryan Doumit 2933 31 26.57 0.011 0.009 116.66Carlos Ruiz 2517 42 36.54 0.017 0.015 114.95Guillermo Quiroz 1176 8 7.01 0.007 0.006 114.11Chris Iannetta 2633 35 30.83 0.013 0.012 113.52Humberto Quintero 1321 15 13.41 0.011 0.010 111.87Victor Martinez 1388 16 14.48 0.012 0.010 110.53Jason Kendall 3988 67 60.93 0.017 0.015 109.97Jason LaRue 1288 16 14.58 0.012 0.011 109.72Joe Mauer 3805 41 37.60 0.011 0.010 109.03Ramon Castro 1041 14 12.97 0.013 0.012 107.97Gregg Zaun 1807 30 28.04 0.017 0.016 106.97Dioner Navarro 2911 38 35.59 0.013 0.012 106.77Ivan Rodriguez 2947 42 39.65 0.014 0.013 105.93Brian Schneider 2575 30 28.52 0.012 0.011 105.19Jeff Mathis 2351 33 31.46 0.014 0.013 104.90Josh Bard 1253 21 20.28 0.017 0.016 103.56Ramon Hernandez 3272 33 32.09 0.010 0.010 102.83Miguel Montero 1191 15 14.77 0.013 0.012 101.53Chris Snyder 2733 33 32.54 0.012 0.012 101.41Brad Ausmus 1719 18 17.82 0.010 0.010 101.04Gerald Laird 2419 24 23.76 0.010 0.010 101.00Jarrod Saltalamacchia 1470 17 16.85 0.012 0.011 100.90Jose Molina 2152 23 22.80 0.011 0.011 100.89Brandon Inge 1541 21 21.16 0.014 0.014 99.24A.J. Pierzynski 3428 31 31.53 0.009 0.009 98.31Brian McCann 3470 49 50.81 0.014 0.015 96.44Miguel Olivo 1509 19 19.85 0.013 0.013 95.70John Buck 2902 30 31.39 0.010 0.011 95.57Yorvit Torrealba 1819 21 22.19 0.012 0.012 94.65Kurt Suzuki 3608 25 26.45 0.007 0.007 94.50Matt Treanor 1561 23 24.36 0.015 0.016 94.43Nick Hundley 1482 18 19.13 0.012 0.013 94.11Bengie Molina 3272 36 39.00 0.011 0.012 92.31Geovany Soto 3302 34 37.47 0.010 0.011 90.75Rod Barajas 2262 24 26.60 0.011 0.012 90.24Russell Martin 3655 31 34.63 0.008 0.009 89.52Jason Varitek 3002 37 42.26 0.012 0.014 87.56Jesus Flores 2116 13 15.03 0.006 0.007 86.52David Ross 1238 17 19.69 0.014 0.016 86.35Kenji Johjima 2617 20 23.53 0.008 0.009 85.01Yadier Molina 3185 29 34.24 0.009 0.011 84.70Mike Napoli 1931 10 12.08 0.005 0.006 82.77Paul Bako 2272 20 24.25 0.009 0.011 82.48Kelly Shoppach 2774 25 30.66 0.009 0.011 81.54John Baker 1477 13 15.96 0.009 0.011 81.46Chris Coste 1853 15 18.62 0.008 0.010 80.57Shawn Riggans 1041 11 14.08 0.011 0.014 78.12Here's another reason Joe Mauer gets my vote for AL MVP. He's not only a great offensive catcher, but he fields his position well also. For those teams interested in Jason Varitek, his ranking here is certainly another strike against him.It's also interesting to note that Jarrod Saltalamacchia wasn't terrible behind the plate. I know there's much more to the position than the ability to field, but in this regard, Saltalamacchia shows a positive behind the plate. Posted by David Pinto at 09:58 AM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Quote of the Day Permalink Doug Melvin doesn't understand the Yankees bid for CC Sabathia:"It sounds like they're overbidding," Melvin said. "If the speculation is true that we've offered CC $100 million, why would you offer $140 million? Why wouldn't you offer $110 million?"Because, Doug, if they offered $110 million you might bid again. This way, they drive out all of the teams that can't afford $140 million, and see who's left. This leaves the Yankees with a lot less work to do. Since Sabathia is probably worth around $27 million a year, or $162 million over six years, the Yankees just took the bidding up to a decent level where it will move along faster. Melvin should bid $150 million for six years. In all likelihood, the Yankees will top that. So Doug gets to look like a hero to the Milwaukee fans for being willing to spend top dollar on Sabathia without shelling out any money, plus he forces the Yankees to bid higher. If all the other teams are scared away by New York's offer, the Yankees get Sabathia cheap. If they take part in incremental bidding, however, there's a chance another team breaks it's limit on CC. If someone bid $125 million, then $135 million, maybe they feel they've invested so much time in trying to obtain Sabathia's services that they are willing to break their $140 million limit and go to $145 or $150 million. If, however, that limit is met with the first bid, there's no reason to even get started. So by trying to drive out all the other bidders, the Yankees might actually save money over using Melvin's rational strategy. Posted by David Pinto at 09:02 AM | Management | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections November 15, 2008 Expanding Stats Permalink The Mariners are adding a statistics department:The department will fall under the auspices of Tony Blengino, a longtime baseball stats analyst and a special assistant to new Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik. Details of the department's mandate and size are still to be worked out, but the move could vault the Mariners from their perceived Stone Age approach to stats to one in which they're seen as one of the game's more progressive franchises."We want to take all the information at our disposal and combine it with our scouting," Blengino said Friday.Good for them. They've used Matt Olkin as a consultant, and it's not clear if that relationship will continue. If you're looking for a job in this area, it's a good time to send your resume to the Mariners! Posted by David Pinto at 10:25 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections No Manny in LA Permalink The Dodgers withdrew their offer to Manny Ramirez:According to the Dodgers' website, the team has pulled its initial offer to free agent outfielder Manny Ramirez. What that means exactly remains to be seen because the team says it will continue to negotiate with him.I find this a strange negotiating strategy. At this point, they'd be bidding against themselves. Until there is a better bid on the table, why withdraw the offer? I suppose it's possible that no other team bids for Manny, and then the Dodgers come back with a lower offer, but the probability of that is pretty low. Posted by David Pinto at 09:55 AM | Free Agents | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Looking for Lefties Permalink The Cardinals first priority is signing left-handed relievers. Posted by David Pinto at 09:18 AM | Free Agents | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections High Supply Permalink Richard Griffin wonders if the large number of second tier free agents, combined with the poor economy, will push prices down:The fact of the matter is that the effects of the recession will be felt by the majority of the 171 free agents (almost seven full team rosters) that have now placed themselves on the open market. It would not be surprising to quietly see the Jays and many others of their financial ilk enter the New Year without inking any major free agents, waiting into mid-January for the panic among the multitude of remaining players to set in when bargains can be had.It might be a good winter for free agents to take one or two guaranteed seasons, instead of holding out; they can then explore free agency again when the world economy has had a chance to rebound.Even at the high end, teams are unlikely to go overboard. If you don't get Sabathia, you can alway land Sheets, Dempster or Lowe, or trade for Jake Peavy. Posted by David Pinto at 09:13 AM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections November 14, 2008 No Peavy in Atlanta Permalink The Braves are officially out of the Peavy sweepstakes. Posted by David Pinto at 07:03 PM | Trades | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Bidding Opens Permalink The Yankees open the bidding on CC Sabathia:The Yankees have officially tendered an offer to CC Sabathia, ESPN's Buster Olney reports.Sabathia, the 2007 AL Cy Young winner, split last season between the Indians and Brewers (17-10 2.70).The Yankees offered a six-year deal worth more than $137.5 million, Olney reports.Let's call in $140 million, or $23 million per year. That seems to be a good place to start. He's worth more than that per year, but teams may not wish to go that far out in terms of seasons. Posted by David Pinto at 05:23 PM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections All Part of the Plan Permalink Nick Swisher and CC Sabathia are friends. Posted by David Pinto at 12:43 PM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Free Agent Value Permalink Dave Cameron, in calculating a value for CC Sabathia, sets the price for buying a free agent at $5.5 million per win. That puts the price of Sabathia somewhere between $27 million and $30 million per year, depending on the length of the contract. Posted by David Pinto at 12:24 PM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Fire Sale Questions Permalink Ducksnorts offers an FAQ on the Padres fire sale. Posted by David Pinto at 12:05 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Nationals Interest Permalink Dave Sheinin discusses how the Nationals might convince Mark Teixeira to sign with Washington:"Mark, you are a once-in-a-lifetime player, especially to a franchise like ours. The Nationals see you as the foundation, someone with deep local ties who could be the face of our franchise for the next [six/eight/ten] years. We will build this team around you, and when we're ready to win it all - and we're closer than people think - you will have been part something truly special."Nowhere else in baseball can give you what you can get here, Mark. We're not only just down the road from your hometown. We're also the nation's capital. You'll have congressmen and Supreme Court justices watching you nightly. You might be a regular guest at the White House, given the President-Elect's love of sports."Face it: You can never own L.A., or Boston - at least not as long as Kobe and Tom Brady are alive. But you can own this town, Mark. It yours if you want it."The Nationals minor league teams did well, and that's often a precursor to major league improvement. Posted by David Pinto at 11:19 AM | Free Agents | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Free ESPN? Permalink It appears the ESPN blogs are no longer behind the Insider subscription wall. I can see Rob Neyer's blog and Peter Gammon's blog. Is this sweeps week or did ESPN finally wise up?Update: It looks like Jayson Stark's blog is still behind the wall. Still having Neyer and Law free is great. Posted by David Pinto at 10:54 AM | Blogs | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, First Basemen Permalink The Probabilistic Model of Range survey continues with first basemen:Team First Basemen PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data onlyTeam In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER RatioCardinals 4597 363 330.17 0.079 0.072 109.94Rays 4264 337 309.47 0.079 0.073 108.90Astros 4292 352 334.44 0.082 0.078 105.25Angels 4374 348 332.57 0.080 0.076 104.64Reds 4299 340 326.62 0.079 0.076 104.10Orioles 4540 330 317.28 0.073 0.070 104.01Braves 4383 309 301.26 0.070 0.069 102.57Giants 4232 306 298.46 0.072 0.071 102.53Mariners 4512 312 305.65 0.069 0.068 102.08Padres 4419 314 308.13 0.071 0.070 101.90Athletics 4285 287 282.84 0.067 0.066 101.47Cubs 4156 339 334.40 0.082 0.080 101.38Mets 4335 323 319.48 0.075 0.074 101.10Pirates 4683 293 290.12 0.063 0.062 100.99White Sox 4409 295 292.85 0.067 0.066 100.73Red Sox 4232 300 298.07 0.071 0.070 100.65Blue Jays 4215 346 345.24 0.082 0.082 100.22Rangers 4667 292 292.72 0.063 0.063 99.75Dodgers 4265 288 290.00 0.068 0.068 99.31Rockies 4535 311 318.74 0.069 0.070 97.57Phillies 4396 335 345.93 0.076 0.079 96.84Tigers 4536 258 267.90 0.057 0.059 96.31Brewers 4354 299 311.39 0.069 0.072 96.02Royals 4413 270 282.47 0.061 0.064 95.58Nationals 4417 279 292.73 0.063 0.066 95.31Indians 4513 276 290.25 0.061 0.064 95.09Yankees 4349 270 286.22 0.062 0.066 94.33Marlins 4338 296 314.60 0.068 0.073 94.09Diamondbacks 4224 292 311.45 0.069 0.074 93.76Twins 4607 262 283.33 0.057 0.061 92.47As you might expect from the ranking of the top two National League teams, Pujols and Berkman competed with the glove as well as the bat:Individual First Basemen PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER RatioAlbert Pujols 3833 310 275.70 0.081 0.072 112.44Carlos Pena 3428 272 250.39 0.079 0.073 108.63Rich Aurilia 1398 94 88.21 0.067 0.063 106.57Lance Berkman 3899 329 309.21 0.084 0.079 106.40Mark Teixeira 4009 322 302.91 0.080 0.076 106.30Kevin Millar 3607 264 250.96 0.073 0.070 105.20Joey Votto 3686 300 285.79 0.081 0.078 104.97Todd Helton 2272 165 158.79 0.073 0.070 103.91Casey Kotchman 3659 268 259.14 0.073 0.071 103.42Paul Konerko 3069 214 207.95 0.070 0.068 102.91Kevin Youkilis 2835 212 206.26 0.075 0.073 102.78Adrian Gonzalez 4302 307 300.33 0.071 0.070 102.22Derrek Lee 3848 322 315.59 0.084 0.082 102.03Daric Barton 3322 211 207.92 0.064 0.063 101.48Carlos Delgado 4088 306 305.60 0.075 0.075 100.13Lyle Overbay 3919 330 329.98 0.084 0.084 100.01James Loney 4023 267 267.57 0.066 0.067 99.79Chris Davis 1295 81 81.23 0.063 0.063 99.72Miguel Cairo 1223 84 84.91 0.069 0.069 98.93Adam LaRoche 3647 224 226.60 0.061 0.062 98.85Aaron Boone 1040 61 62.74 0.059 0.060 97.23Richie son 2103 133 137.24 0.063 0.065 96.91Ryan Howard 4254 322 336.79 0.076 0.079 95.61Nick Swisher 1340 81 84.91 0.060 0.063 95.40Prince Fielder 4133 280 293.92 0.068 0.071 95.26Chad Tracy 1496 110 115.89 0.074 0.077 94.92Ross Gload 2727 163 171.75 0.060 0.063 94.91John Bowker 1607 104 110.60 0.065 0.069 94.03Miguel Cabrera 3772 220 234.22 0.058 0.062 93.93Ryan Garko 3323 198 211.16 0.060 0.064 93.77Conor Jackson 1696 109 117.40 0.064 0.069 92.85Sean Casey 1042 65 70.15 0.062 0.067 92.65Justin Morneau 4289 242 261.41 0.056 0.061 92.57Jason Giambi 2795 164 177.51 0.059 0.064 92.39Garrett Atkins 1638 101 110.77 0.062 0.068 91.18Mike Jacobs 2860 175 194.95 0.061 0.068 89.77Year after year Albert Pujols shows his defensive skill at first base. Lance Berkman is up there, also, making the MVP argument between the two that much closer. Mark Teixeira also offers an excellent glove to go along with his fine offense.The most surprising ranking to me, however, is Justin Morneau. Justin is still young and shouldn't have lost a step. He's someone worth looking at in more detail. Of course, at the very bottom is Mike Jacobs, giving Royals fans another reason to dislike the trade. Posted by David Pinto at 08:51 AM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Local Bidding War Permalink Both the Mets and Yankees are planning on pursuing CC Sabathia. Imagine having to face Santana and Sabathia on consecutive days! Posted by David Pinto at 08:34 AM | Free Agents | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections November 13, 2008 Peavy Not a Brave Permalink It looks like Ken Rosenthal was right on this one. The Padres don't have a deal with the Braves or the Cubs, and now they are looking to trade Jake Peavy to an American League team:The Yankees and Angels could be next in line. At season's end, Peavy said he doesn't want to go to an American League team, but during the GM meetings at Dana Point last week, Towers said Peavy might be open to going to the Yankees and Angels.If the Yankees and Angels become viable trade partners, Towers' leverage would increase, but because Peavy's consent is needed for a trade, that leverage is contingent on Peavy reversing his position. Barry Axelrod, Peavy's agent, gave no indication Thursday night that Peavy suddenly has become excited about going to the AL, but he did not rule it out.That Kei Igawa deal is looking better all the time. Igawa, Kennedy and one of the Yankees outfielders to San Diego for Peavy. His contract is relatively cheap for an ace, and gives the Yankees plenty of money leftover to sign Sabathia. That would give New York a rotation of CC, Peavy, Wang, Chamberlain and either Pettitte or Hughes as a fifth starter, or even Mike Mussina if he still wants to pitch. Not bad, and they'd still have enough money left over to sign either Manny Ramirez or Mark Teixeira. Posted by David Pinto at 11:00 PM | Trades | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Joe Morgan Outlasts the Competition Permalink Fire Joe Morgan closed their doors. They will be missed. Posted by David Pinto at 10:56 PM | Blogs | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections No Agreement Permalink Randy Johnson and the Diamondbacks could not reach an agreement. Johnson becomes a free agent and issues a statement to his Arizona fans.Randy instructed us not to file for free agency until we made every effort to reach an agreement. The Diamondbacks have a budget based on their club's financial situation and obviously viewed Randy's contract in that context. Randy considered every reasonable compromise including offering to take a 50% pay cut, all to remain a Diamondback. However, the economic situation did not lend itself to an agreement.Consequently, Randy is forced to file for free agency and consider all opportunities to further his career. He hopes to find a team where he can continue to pitch at a high level and contribute to another World Championship. Randy and his family live in Arizona and he will always be a Diamondback at heart. Most of all, Randy will miss the overwhelming support the fans have shown him throughout the years. He wishes the Diamondbacks great success in 2009 and beyond."I wonder if a team will sign him to a contract. He pitched well at times in 2008 but poorly at others. He still strikes out a high number of batters. Maybe he could be a Sunday pitcher for some club to keep his starts low. Posted by David Pinto at 08:02 PM | Free Agents | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections More on Swisher Permalink Peter Abraham posts audio of Brian Cashman talking about the Swisher deal and sums it up also:Swisher is not here to play CF. Cashman made that clear. He's here to play 1B. Cashman did not close the door to anything else happening (he never does), but it's pretty evident that they see Swisher playing 1B and having the ability to play LF or RF on occasion. That would enable them to keep Jorge Posada in the lineup once in a while as the 1B....This move allows the Yankees to focus their attention (and money) on starting pitching. Mark Teixeira just lost a lot of leverage.I wonder how much of that last bit was the plan all along. The Yankees might see how the bidding goes on Teixeira, and if it's not too high sweep in at the last moment with a great bid. That's pretty much how they got Johnny Damon. They made him a tough to refuse offer and gave him very little time to accept or reject it. It's easy enough to move Nick to the outfield if Cashman manages to land Teixeira anyway.More likely, however, is that they'll buy two starting pitchers. Posted by David Pinto at 07:09 PM | Trades | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Gregg on the Face Permalink Dave Cameron at FanGraphs doesn't like the Cubs/Marlins trade in which Chicago appears to be replacing Kerry Wood with Kevin Gregg. Posted by David Pinto at 05:50 PM | Trades | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Yankees Get Texiera Permalink  Nick SwisherPhoto: Icom SMIThe Yankees acquired Kanekoa Texeira from the White Sox, along with a slightly better known player:The New York Yankees acquired center fielder-first baseman Nick Swisher in a trade with the Chicago White Sox on Thursday.The Yankees traded infielder Wilson Betemit and minor league pitchers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez to Chicago in exchange for the switch-hitting Swisher and minor league pitcher Kanekoa Texeira.Swisher is coming off a very disappointing season. I would have thought moving from Oakland to Chicago would have improved his power because of the park. He did hit well in Chicago, but was abysmal on the road. His career road numbers are much better, so if 2008 was a fluke, the Yankees are getting a good hitter.I'm not sure he's the answer at first, however. I would rather see him in right, and have the Yankees sign a real power hitter at first base.As a minor league reliever, Texeira does exactly what a team wants; lots of strikeouts, few walks and a minuscule number of home runs. New York dumps Wilson Betemit, but gives up two decent enough pitchers in Nunez and Marquez. In general, the trade makes the Yankees younger, and the White Sox get a utility infielder and two pitchers who might help them in the future.If the Yankees play Swisher in the outfield, I like the deal for them. If they think he's the answer at first base, I think they'll be disappointed.Hat tip to YFSF. Posted by David Pinto at 04:53 PM | Trades | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Winning-Lee Permalink  Cliff LeePhoto: Icon SMICliff Lee wins the American League Cy Young Award fairly easily. He took 24 of 28 first place votes and four second place votes. Roy Halladay received the other four first place votes. Amazingly, Halladay only appeared on 25 ballots. Three voters did not put Roy in the top three AL pitchers, despite some evidence that he pitched as well as Lee this season.Voters seemed to be impressed with save totals, as Francisco Rodriguez tallied seven second place votes and eleven third place votes to finish in third. Mariano Rivera picked up three third place votes as well.Daisuke Matsuzaka and Ervin Santana rounded out the field of pitchers receiving votes. I don't really have a problem with any of these pitchers receiving votes, I just can't see leaving Halladay off any ballot.Congratulations to Cliff Lee on recovering from an awful 2007 season to come back and win the highest honor for a pitcher! Posted by David Pinto at 02:38 PM | Awards | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Where's Manny Going? Permalink Apparently, not to the Dodgers. Posted by David Pinto at 01:29 PM | Free Agents | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Rating Managers Permalink R.J. Anderson makes a nice attempt at putting a number on managerial choices. It might make Yankees fans feel a bit better about letting Joe Torre go in favor of Joe Girardi. Posted by David Pinto at 12:45 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Rightfield Runs Permalink Dan Turkenkopf list PMR Runs for rightfielders. Posted by David Pinto at 12:12 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Storm Brewing Permalink I'm not the only baseball blogger excited about the new Blackberry Storm. I've kept my Motorola Q way beyond the upgrade date (if you consider 8 months way beyond) because I've been waiting for the phone. From what I've seen, the storm may be it. I can't wait to get one in my hands to see if it really supports blogging the way I want to do it on a hand-held device. It looks like it supports copy and paste of URLs, which is the one thing my Q lacks. Posted by David Pinto at 12:07 PM | Blogs | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Kei Trade? Permalink River Ave. Blues comments on Kei Igawa making the AAA all-star team:I don't really know what else I can add to this news. I, for one, am glad the Yanks' $46-million investment is paying dividends for some team. That 6.66 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 71.2 big league innings makes me wonder just how bad AAA hitters are anyway.Now, can we trade him?That's a good question. He's not exactly blowing away minor league hitters. His 3.45 MiLB ERA is good but not great. My guess is put him in San Diego where get gets to face the weak hitters of the NL West in a tough park for hitters, and he'll get by as a fifth starter. Maybe the Yankees can package him for Peavy? Posted by David Pinto at 11:53 AM | Pitchers | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Growing the Garden Permalink The Twins extended Ron Gardenhire's contract two years today. Unless something goes wrong, he'll be managing when Minnesota opens their new ballpark in 2010.The 51-year-old Gardenhire, who was runner-up to Tampa Bay's Joe Maddon in the AL Manager of the Year voting, took over as Twins skipper before the 2002 season. He has led the team to four AL Central titles in his first seven years, posting winning records in six of those seven campaigns.Only Tom Kelly, with 1,140 victories, has more wins than Gardenhire with the Twins.It's good to see success rewarded. Ron's also one of the longest tenured managers right now, only trailing Bobby Cox, Tony La Russa and Mike Scioscia. Posted by David Pinto at 11:38 AM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Good Show Permalink The MLB Network hired Harold Reynolds and Al Leiter. I like the way the MLB Network is putting together their studio show. I've worked with both men and I think there's a good chance this group will give Baseball Tonight a run for their money. Posted by David Pinto at 11:14 AM | Broadcasts | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Peavy Deal Imminent? Permalink CBSSportsline says yes. Ken Rosenthal says maybe. Posted by David Pinto at 10:35 AM | Trades | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections AL Cy Young Preview Permalink The BBWAA bestows the American League Cy Young award this afternoon. The smart money rests on Cliff Lee, who both won the most games in the American League and posted the lowest ERA. His main competition for the award comes from 20-game winner Roy Halladay.Lee came out of the gate strong, winning his first six starts and throwing nine shutout innings in his seventh, only to see Cleveland lose the game in extra innings. He went through two rough patches, on at the end of May and one at the end of September. Overall, however, he allowed two runs or less in 21 of his 31 starts, and two earned runs or less in 22 of those starts. Lee's strengths lay in his control and home runs allowed. He walked just 34 men on the season, a little over one per start and 1.4 per nine innings. He gave up just 12 home runs, or 10.7 per 200 innings pitched. He did allow a higher batting average with runners in scoring position compared to his overall BA allowed, but he only saw 165 at bats out of 847 total with men in scoring position. He just didn't allow men past first base very often.The best case for Roy Halladay comes from the competition he faced. Lee, playing in the AL Central, faced Kansas City five times and the Twins four times. He went a combined 7-1 against those teams with a 2.69 ERA. Halladay, competing in the AL East, faced the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees a total of 16 times, nearly half his starts. In those 16 games, Halladay posted a 10-6 record with a 2.96 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. That's an average of 7 1/3 innings per start against three good teams.Halladay posted the same walks per nine as Lee, struck out batters at a higher rate, but also gave up a few more home runs. Like Lee, Halladay gave the opposition very few chances with runners in scoring position, and allowed just a .214 BA in the situation.This is a tough one for me to pick. Lee leads in ERA, and when he was on was absolutely brilliant. Halladay faced much tougher competition during the season and responded to the challenge. Both deserve the award. Lee will probably win, but Halladay's tougher competition would likely push my first place vote to Roy. Posted by David Pinto at 08:37 AM | Awards | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections November 12, 2008 Baseball Musings Radio Show Permalink If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available at TPSRadio.net. Posted by David Pinto at 09:06 PM | Podcasts | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Done Deal Permalink The Athletics-Rockies trade is official:Matt Holliday hardly could have expected to land with the low-budget Oakland Athletics.The A's completed their trade with the Colorado Rockies for the star outfielder Wednesday, securing the big bat Oakland sought for the middle of its order.''Originally, it was a little bit of a surprise considering I've never been traded before,'' Holliday said. ''I spent my first 11 years of professional baseball in the Rockies organization. Any time you make a change there's a bit of an unknown.''Colorado received right-handed reliever Huston Street, lefty starter Greg Smith and promising outfielder Carlos Gonzalez from the A's. The clubs reached a tentative agreement Monday, but had to wait for the results of physicals and other details to be worked out.Now I wonder what other moves might come as a surprise from Oakland this winter? Maybe they'll sign a big name free agent! Posted by David Pinto at 04:58 PM | Trades | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Baseball Musings Radio Show Permalink The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up tonight at 8 PM EST on TPS Radio. You can watch, listen and chat here. If you want to leave a question, feel free to do so in the comments to this post.TPS Radio is on channel 100. At the bottom of the player you'll see a control with an up and down arrow. Click on that and select channel 100 from the list. Posted by David Pinto at 04:27 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Managing an Award Permalink  Lou PiniellaPhoto: Icon SMIThe BBWAA award Manager of the Year this afternoon, Joe Maddon walking away with the award in the American League and Lou Piniella taking home the trophy in the National League.I agree 100% with the first four spots in the National League voting. Lou Piniella got the Cubs out in front early and kept them in first place most of the season. He managed his offense, his starting staff and his bullpen well. My favorite moment from the season was when Lou came out to get Ted Lilly, who had pitched himself into a tough situation. Lilly didn't want to come out of the game and glared at Lou as the manager walked out to the mound. This was the kind of behavior that didn't go over well when Lilly pitched in Toronto. As Piniella approached the mound, however, he saw the glare and appeared to say to Lilly something like, you want him, go get him (meaning the batter). Lilly walked the next batter, and Lou removed him then, but he turned what could be a tense moment into a chance to show confidence in one of his players.Charlie Manuel, who finished second and received eight first place votes helped the Phillies through the ups and downs to an NL East title (these votes are based on the regular season). Fredi Gonzalez gets the "team did better than expected vote." Joe Torre comes in fourth, leading the Dodgers to the playoffs thanks to a weak division, the Manny trade, and Joe finally playing the youngsters over the veterans. Joe MaddonPhoto: Icon SMIIn the AL, Maddon ran away with the win. This was clearly due to the Rays far outperforming expectations, even the 88 wins predicted by PECOTA. My Maddon moment came in the playoffs. Evan Longoria's mechanics were off, so Maddon took him out to the batting cage and put him through some pattern recognition drills with numbered tennis balls. That turned him around, at least until the World Series.The surprise to me was Gardenhire's finish in second place. I'm attributing that to coming close to the playoffs with the loss of Johan Santana. However, the Angels under Mike Scioscia out-won their Pythagorean projection, and the White Sox were as much an underdog as the Twins in the AL Central, but actually won it. Ozzie Guillen deserves some credit for that, but maybe his profanity laced rants lost him the press. I would have voted Maddon, Scioscia, Guillen 1-2-3.Congratulations to Joe Maddon and Lou Piniella on their well deserved awards! Posted by David Pinto at 02:53 PM | Awards | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Manny News Permalink David Ortiz spoke on the radio about Manny Ramirez, and says lots of good things about his ex-teammate. He was also asked if Manny quit on the team:"Well, to tell you the truth, it was something going down between the Red Sox and Manny Ramirez that I can never really break that down for you because there's some personal reasons that he has with our owners and I never got to the bottom of it, and [he's] got his feelings, you know, Manny was, he got to the point that he really wanted to get to play for someone else."I'll tell you one thing, I'm the kind of guy that I look at the positive side of everything and Manny, I get to learn a lot of things from Manny. Manny's one of the guys that worked hard every day to have some really good performances out there, and I never saw Manny not getting prepared to play. . . now he wasn't happy here, everybody knows that. And when a relationship get to the point, you gotta make a move just like we did, and you go from there."Also, via Deadspin, the Nationals will bid for Ramirez. Posted by David Pinto at 12:11 PM | Free Agents | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections With a Name Like Padres, You'd Think They'd Have Grace Permalink Gaslamp Ball laments the Padres lack of grace in getting rid of players. Posted by David Pinto at 11:59 AM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections No Increase Permalink The Red Sox announced that they will not raise ticket prices for 2009:"We have been listening to fans, friends, and family about the challenges they are facing in light of the current adverse economic conditions," said Red Sox president and CEO Larry Lucchino in a press release. "We are also grateful for the unwavering faith and support our fans have shown us year after year and we hope our ownership's decision to hold prices for the upcoming season will in some way help ease the burden on Red Sox Nation."The last time the Red Sox held ticket prices across the board was 1995 -- the season following the damaging strike that led to the cancellation of the '94 World Series.I wonder how much getting a cut of ticket reselling plays into this? The Red Sox probably could drop prices, and still make out well as long as fans are willing to buy on one of the approved secondary markets. So the Red Sox get to look like good guys for keeping prices stable in a recession, while still making money due to the high demand for their product.This looks like a move toward a market based approach to ticket selling, which I believe will benefit baseball in the long run. Posted by David Pinto at 11:27 AM | Tickets | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections PMR Runs Permalink Dan Turkenkopf continues to translate PMR stats into runs, taking on third basemen this time. Posted by David Pinto at 10:54 AM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Laying Down the Law Permalink Keith Law names the three writers who voted for Edinson Volquez on the Rookie of the Year ballot. Volquez, of course, was not a rookie.Doesn't the BBWAA give the voters a list of rookies? Voting for Volquez shows that these writers were derelict in their fact checking, but there are a number of players where it's tough to tell. At least set up a page on their website listing all rookies! (That page might exist. There is a member's only section. If it is there, these three should be kicked out of the club.)Remember this the next time someone tells you that bloggers can't join the group.Hat tip, The Big Lead.Update: In looking at Volquez, I understand why the mistake was made. Keith Law assumes the innings are cumulative. They are not. If you do not break rookie status one year, the innings reset. So Volquez never reached 50 innings in a single season. He did spend too many days on the roster for Texas, however, in one of those seasons, that's why he's not a rookie. These voters still should have checked with Elias.Update: Keith Law writes, and I retract the above update. The rule as laid out on the MLB web site (which didn't show up in my google search):A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list). I've seen this rule with seasons left out making me think the numbers only applied to the previous season. I'm sorry for the error. Posted by David Pinto at 10:45 AM | News Media | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Marte Signs Permalink It appears the Yankees signed Damaso Marte to a three-year deal worth a total of $12 million. In his brief stint with the Yankees in 2008, Marte's walks were way above his career average, which is very good, but his strikeouts and homers were fine. I'll take the walks as a fluke right now and call this a good signing at a good price. Posted by David Pinto at 10:37 AM | Transactions | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Ambassador Ripken Permalink Cal Ripken continues his work for the State Department with a trip to Nicaragua. He'll be blogging for MASN during his visit:Cal Ripken Jr. will travel to Nicaragua on behalf of the State Department from November 13-18 to bring the Ripken Baseball brand of instruction to over 500 Nicaraguan children and 100 youth coaches. Throughout the trip, Ripken will be blogging on MASNSports.com about his experience. Cal's blog will contain trip updates, stories about the children he meets, reflections about the country's baseball culture and photographs from his travels. During the five day trip, Ripken will visit the cities of Managua, Leon and Granada. He will be joined by Hall of Famer, former teammate and Nicaraguan native Dennis Martinez. The 23-year Major League veteran and 4-time All Star finished his playing career in 1998 with 245 victories and a 3.70 ERA. The duo will be joined by two instructors from Ripken Baseball. Posted by David Pinto at 10:19 AM | International | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Leftfielders Permalink The survery of range continues with leftfielders. The following table shows how the thirty teams fared at the position:Team Leftfielders PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data onlyTeam In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER RatioRoyals 4413 368 353.21 0.083 0.080 104.19Indians 4513 302 290.89 0.067 0.064 103.82Rays 4264 344 331.81 0.081 0.078 103.67Nationals 4417 350 339.72 0.079 0.077 103.03Mets 4335 308 299.09 0.071 0.069 102.98Diamondbacks 4224 306 298.79 0.072 0.071 102.41Braves 4383 279 273.49 0.064 0.062 102.02Brewers 4354 305 299.07 0.070 0.069 101.98White Sox 4409 293 287.74 0.066 0.065 101.83Rangers 4667 323 317.21 0.069 0.068 101.83Orioles 4540 362 355.59 0.080 0.078 101.80Athletics 4285 333 328.28 0.078 0.077 101.44Astros 4292 282 278.71 0.066 0.065 101.18Padres 4419 310 306.42 0.070 0.069 101.17Cardinals 4597 312 308.84 0.068 0.067 101.02Red Sox 4232 292 291.37 0.069 0.069 100.22Dodgers 4265 286 285.62 0.067 0.067 100.13Tigers 4536 356 355.77 0.078 0.078 100.06Giants 4232 308 308.26 0.073 0.073 99.92Yankees 4349 316 316.76 0.073 0.073 99.76Angels 4374 285 286.29 0.065 0.065 99.55Cubs 4156 302 304.23 0.073 0.073 99.27Blue Jays 4215 270 272.75 0.064 0.065 98.99Pirates 4683 293 299.34 0.063 0.064 97.88Reds 4299 280 288.41 0.065 0.067 97.08Rockies 4535 282 290.95 0.062 0.064 96.92Marlins 4338 289 299.06 0.067 0.069 96.64Mariners 4512 324 336.18 0.072 0.075 96.38Twins 4607 306 327.83 0.066 0.071 93.34Phillies 4396 260 279.09 0.059 0.063 93.16As in rightfield, there doesn't seem to be a huge correlation between doing well in left and winning. The Royals displayed the best defense at the position, while the Phillies came out at the bottom of the pack.The list of individuals in left shows that very few teams employ a regular at the position:Individual Leftfielder PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER RatioSkip Schumaker 1085 85 73.79 0.078 0.068 115.20David DeJesus 1522 136 121.91 0.089 0.080 111.56Brandon Boggs 1818 131 118.10 0.072 0.065 110.92Matt Joyce 1249 94 84.77 0.075 0.068 110.89Ben Francisco 2021 150 138.34 0.074 0.068 108.43Juan Pierre 1816 125 116.83 0.069 0.064 107.00Willie Harris 1685 145 135.55 0.086 0.080 106.97Carl Crawford 2715 231 217.97 0.085 0.080 105.98Conor Jackson 1944 146 139.06 0.075 0.072 104.99Gregor Blanco 1547 86 82.08 0.056 0.053 104.78Jay Payton 1293 132 126.31 0.102 0.098 104.51Luke Scott 2668 200 196.08 0.075 0.073 102.00Johnny Damon 1998 155 152.00 0.078 0.076 101.97Ryan Braun 3919 275 270.93 0.070 0.069 101.50Wily Mo Pena 1260 99 97.68 0.079 0.078 101.35Carlos Lee 2840 187 185.42 0.066 0.065 100.85David Dellucci 1164 75 74.64 0.064 0.064 100.48Adam Dunn 2942 210 209.06 0.071 0.071 100.45Alfonso Soriano 2653 186 185.23 0.070 0.070 100.42Fred Lewis 2622 178 177.57 0.068 0.068 100.24Carlos Quentin 3465 228 228.42 0.066 0.066 99.81Jack Cust 1753 129 129.74 0.074 0.074 99.43Emil Brown 1229 89 89.70 0.072 0.073 99.21Chase Headley 2159 156 157.62 0.072 0.073 98.97Matt Holliday 3850 240 243.20 0.062 0.063 98.68Manny Ramirez 2894 190 193.40 0.066 0.067 98.24Adam Lind 1712 113 115.52 0.066 0.067 97.81Xavier Nady 1212 87 89.04 0.072 0.073 97.71Chris Duncan 1012 73 74.80 0.072 0.074 97.59Raul Ibanez 4203 303 312.07 0.072 0.074 97.09Garret Anderson 2113 144 148.53 0.068 0.070 96.95Jose Guillen 1098 83 85.62 0.076 0.078 96.94Luis Gonzalez 1547 105 109.32 0.068 0.071 96.05David Murphy 1317 86 89.62 0.065 0.068 95.96Josh Willingham 2551 166 173.80 0.065 0.068 95.51Eric Byrnes 1209 76 80.12 0.063 0.066 94.86Jason Bay 4215 254 268.19 0.060 0.064 94.71Marcus Thames 1537 120 127.42 0.078 0.083 94.18Delmon Young 4209 282 301.19 0.067 0.072 93.63Pat Burrell 3646 202 223.39 0.055 0.061 90.42Ryan Braun is the first player on the list on the field in left for over 3000 balls in play. Some of this was caused by injuries (Soriano, Matsui), but for the most part, managers mix and match at the position. The move to left was clearly the right one for Braun.The other rankings of note belong to Manny Ramirez and Jason Bay. Manny actually did better than Jason in 2008. I'm going to need to break down the two by team to see how much the parks might have made a difference. Bay certainly looked better than Manny watching him play for the Red Sox.All those late inning substitutions Charlie Manuel made for Pat Burrell looked proper, also. Pat ranks as the worst leftfielder in baseball in 2008, so it's no wonder Charlie wanted a better glove in left when the Phillies had the lead late. Posted by David Pinto at 08:43 AM | Probabilistic Model of Range | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections November 11, 2008 The Citi Never Sleeps Permalink Mets-Citi-Blog is a new Mets blog by Brian DePersis. Stopy by and say hi. Posted by David Pinto at 10:43 PM | Blogs | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Neshek on the Shelf Permalink Pat Neshek hurt himself throwing last week:Minnesota Twins reliever Pat Neshek will have ligament replacement surgery on his right elbow and is expected to miss next season.The right-hander re-injured his elbow last week during a throwing session at the team's facility in Florida. He had an MRI exam Tuesday, which revealed a complete tear of his ulnar collateral ligament. The procedure could take place next week.After a standout season in 2007 as Minnesota's primary setup man, Neshek sustained a partial tear of the ligament during a game in May. The Twins recommended rest and rehabilitation rather than surgery at the time. Neshek said last month his recovery was on track and he'd be ready for spring training.That's too bad. I wonder if more players will opt for surgery first after this incident. Posted by David Pinto at 10:25 PM | Injuries | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Torres Retires Permalink Pat at Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? will miss Salomon Torres. The former Pirates pitcher retired today. Posted by David Pinto at 10:20 PM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections It's a Good Thing Zevon is Dead Permalink I drove my daughter back to school this afternoon. As we approached Boston, we switched to Mike FM (they play everything). They play Margaritaville, and when it finishes, I hear a familiar piano introduction. I say to my daughter, "This is a great combination, Margaritaville followed by Werewolves of London." She then tells me I'm listening to a Kid Rock song. So disappointing.Here's how it should have been played: Posted by David Pinto at 07:51 PM | Other | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Cy Lincecum Permalink Tim Lincecum takes home the BBWAA Cy Young Award in the National League. I'm waiting to see the vote. Although I would have voted for Santana, I can't complain about this choice. See my thoughts from earlier today.Update: Here's the vote from the BBWAA. Webb came in second, Santana third. The voters split down the middle on which should be in first, but Webb was the consensus second choice. It appears that wins still carry a lot of weight among some sports writers.There was not a lot of support for Sabathia. Given the amount of ink and pixels devoted to his candidacy during the second half of the season, I expected him to get more support. Instead, he received one first, second and third place vote.Congratulations to Tim Lincecum on his outstanding season! Posted by David Pinto at 02:05 PM | Awards | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Done Deal Permalink The Nationals will hold a 3:30 PM EST news conference to announce their deal with the Marlins. Posted by David Pinto at 12:25 PM | Trades | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Death of Score Permalink Herb Score passed away this morning (Tuesday). He was a young phenom on the mound when a line drive put an end to his greatness:McDougald, the second batter of the game, reached for a low pitch and lined it back at Score. The ball crashed into his face, breaking his nose, cutting his right eyelid and causing swelling and hemmorhaging of the cheekbone and eyebrow. Third baseman Al Smith picked up the carom and threw McDougald out at first. Score was knocked to the ground, bleeding profusely. He was immediately surrounded by teammates and Yankee players. "I didn't see the ball until it was a foot or two from my face," said Score, who threw with an uninhibited motion in which his body turned his back to the batter. Sometimes he turned so hard he expected that he might eventually get hit on the back. "I could feel the blood," said the pitcher, who never lost consciousness. "People were all around me. Rocky must have set a record getting in from right field." Colavito was Score's roommate and best friend. They had come up through the minor leagues together. In his first two years in the majors, Score struck out 508 batters while allowing just 320 hits. He pitched into the 1962 season but without the great results. At the end of 1963, Score tried announcing and stayed on for 34 seasons with the Indians. I have no doubt his fans in Cleveland will miss him tremendously.My thoughts go out to his family and friends. Posted by David Pinto at 11:23 AM | Deaths | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Albert Won't Vote for Himself Permalink MLB FanHouse finds a quote from Albert Pujols on the MVP award. In 2006 Pujols said:"I see it this way: Someone who doesn't take his team to the playoffs doesn't deserve to win the MVP," Pujols said in Spanish at a news conference organized by the Dominican Republic's sports ministry.Of course, new facts may have changed Albert's mind. Posted by David Pinto at 11:05 AM | Awards | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Liking the Trade Permalink David OhNo at Purple Row explains why he likes the Holliday trade with Oakland. Posted by David Pinto at 10:31 AM | Trades | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Parting Ways Permalink The Padres withdrew their offer to Trevor Hoffman. He came as close a one can imagine to being a life-long Padre, having pitched 28 games for the Marlins in 1993 before joining San Diego. At age 40, he posted his highest ERA since 1995, but still strikes out batters at a high rate and keeps his walks low. It was home runs that did him in in 2008. He'll improve some team's bullpen in 2009. Posted by David Pinto at 10:24 AM | Free Agents | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | The Bill James Gold Mine 2008| Buy Roto Authority Projections Waste of Time and Money Permalink J.C. Bradbury comments on the latest HGH inannity. His conclusion:I guess I can't blame MLB. It's the cheapest way to fight a public relations problem--that's all this is. And the sad part is that HGH's prohibition signals to potential users that it works, and the drug has many bad side effects. If anything, the war on growth hormone will do more harm than good. As I have suggested before, the best solution is to legalize it.I agree. 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